Central Florida Market Update: Where We Are and Where We’re Headed

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By David Dorman, Century 21 Carioti
Broker Associate – Serving Central Florida since 1985

A Market in Motion: The Real Story Behind Central Florida Real Estate

If you’ve lived in Central Florida for any length of time, you’ve seen it — the constant change. New neighborhoods spring up almost overnight, traffic patterns shift, and familiar orange groves turn into vibrant communities. That’s part of what makes living and working here so exciting.

My name is David Dorman, and I’ve been helping families buy and sell homes in Central Florida for more than 25 years. I’ve lived in Ocoee since 2001, and I actually began my real estate journey here back in 1999.

I became a licensed real estate agent in 1999, and in 2012, I earned my broker’s license and began working as a franchise broker for Century 21, a role I held for over a decade until 2024. That same year, I was recognized by Century 21 as one of the Top 25 Agents in the United States — an honor made even more meaningful considering that there were approximately 135,000 Century 21 agents nationwide at the time.

These experiences have given me a front-row seat to the evolving story of our market — from boom years to balanced markets — and through it all, I’ve never lost my passion for helping people find their perfect place in Central Florida.

Today, I continue to serve buyers and sellers across the region — from lakefront estates and luxury homes to single-family houses, condos, townhomes, new construction, foreclosures, and vacation homes. If it’s in Central Florida, I’ve probably sold it, marketed it, or helped negotiate it.

So, let’s take a closer look at what’s really happening in our market right now — not the headlines, not the hype — but the reality on the ground.

The Big Picture: A More Balanced Market

After several years of lightning-fast sales and record-breaking appreciation, Central Florida’s housing market is finding its footing again.

The Orlando metro area’s median home price sits around $395,000–$415,000, depending on the source, which is only slightly up from a year ago — about a 2–3% increase. Inventory, however, has climbed roughly 40% year-over-year, giving buyers more breathing room and sellers a bit more competition.

For the first time in a while, we’re seeing a balanced market emerge — one where both sides can negotiate fairly and smart pricing makes all the difference. Homes that are move-in ready and priced right still attract multiple offers, but gone are the days when nearly anything with a roof sold overnight.

Mortgage rates continue to play a starring role. After hovering around 7% for much of 2024, any dip toward the mid-6s brings a wave of new buyers off the sidelines. And as insurance and tax costs continue to climb, affordability is top of mind for nearly every family I meet.

Fresh Data: September 2025 MLS Market Snapshot

According to the September 2025 Stellar MLS Florida Market Report, the numbers confirm what we’re seeing on the ground — a cooling but steady market that’s adjusting to new norms:

Metric	Current (Sep. 2025)	Month-over-Month	Year-over-Year
Active Listings	75,997	0%	+8%
New Listings	19,571	+1%	0%
Pending Sales	16,674	–4%	+9%
Listings Sold	14,060	–1%	+11%
Average Days on Market (ADOM)	75	+3%	+32%
Total Sales Volume	$6.19 Billion	–4%	+7%
Average Sales Price	$440,600	–3%	–4%
Months of Inventory	5.4	+2%	–2%

What this means in plain language:

Inventory is up, giving buyers more choice.
Prices have softened slightly, down about 3% month-over-month and 4% from a year ago.
Homes are taking longer to sell, with average days on market jumping to 75 — that’s about one-third longer than last year.
Sales volume dipped slightly, but the overall number of closed transactions rose by 11%, showing that deals are still happening when homes are priced right.

In short, we’re not in a slump — we’re in a normalization phase. The frenzy has cooled, but the fundamentals remain strong.

Local Snapshots: Neighborhood by Neighborhood

Every part of Central Florida tells its own story. Let’s zoom in on the areas I serve most often and see how each is performing.

🏡 Ocoee

Ocoee remains one of the most stable markets in West Orange County. The median home price sits around $445,000, and while growth has slowed, it hasn’t reversed. Homes are taking a little longer to sell — typically 45 to 60 days — but well-kept properties in good school zones are still moving briskly.

Ocoee’s appeal is its balance: great access to the 408, 429, and Florida Turnpike, proximity to downtown Winter Garden and the West Oaks shopping corridor, and a strong sense of community. From the tree-lined streets of Brookestone to the newer builds near Inspiration Drive, buyers love the value they find here.

🌳 Winter Garden

Winter Garden has been one of the area’s hottest markets for nearly a decade — and for good reason. Downtown Winter Garden is now a weekend destination, full of boutique shops, cafés, and the ever-popular Plant Street Market.

The median sale price here is hovering around $560,000–$600,000, up about 5% year-over-year. But rising inventory (about 20% higher than last year) means buyers can take a breath before jumping in. Sellers, meanwhile, need to be realistic — the homes that sell fast are the ones that are priced right from day one.

New construction continues west toward Horizon West and Avalon Road, with master-planned communities offering resort-style amenities, walking trails, and A-rated schools.

💎 Windermere

Windermere remains one of the crown jewels of Central Florida — a community built around pristine lakes, winding roads, and some of the most beautiful homes in the region.

However, even luxury markets feel the shift. The median sale price has dipped to about $1.3 million, down from over $1.5 million last year. That doesn’t signal a crash; it’s simply normalization after a few red-hot years. Well-positioned luxury homes — especially those with lake frontage or golf course views — still attract strong attention.

If you’ve driven along Chase Road or near the Butler Chain of Lakes, you’ve probably noticed a mix of older estates and fresh new builds. Windermere is evolving, but it still holds that timeless appeal that keeps it at the top of the list for executives, professionals, and families seeking space and elegance.

🌴 Gotha

Small but distinctive, Gotha is one of those “blink and you’ll miss it” communities that locals love. It sits tucked between Ocoee and Windermere, offering oversized lots, mature trees, and a slower pace of life.

Median prices range from $650,000 to $1.3 million, depending on which pocket you’re in. Because the market here is smaller, the numbers can swing dramatically from month to month — but make no mistake, Gotha’s charm and location keep it desirable.

Fun fact: Gotha’s roots go back to the late 1800s, and its old oaks and historic homes make it feel worlds away from the bustle of Orlando, even though it’s just minutes from Conroy-Windermere Road and the Turnpike.

🏞 Clermont

Drive west toward Lake County and you’ll see the hills — yes, actual hills in Florida! That’s part of Clermont’s appeal, along with its chain of lakes and family-friendly vibe.

Clermont’s market remains strong, with median home prices around $480,000–$530,000, depending on the neighborhood. The area continues to grow thanks to new developments along Highway 27 and Hancock Road, not to mention new restaurants, schools, and shopping centers popping up all the time.

If you enjoy the outdoors, Lake Minneola and the South Lake Trail are big draws. The area offers a great blend of suburban comfort and small-town charm — plus some of the best sunsets in Central Florida.

🌆 Orlando

Finally, let’s talk about the hub that ties it all together — Orlando itself.

The median home price in the city hovers around $400,000, down slightly from last year, while days on market have stretched from 39 to about 58. Many listings now require a bit of patience, but the city’s diversity of neighborhoods means there’s truly something for everyone.

Downtown condos are seeing renewed interest thanks to new restaurants and nightlife, while Lake Nona continues to boom with medical and tech professionals drawn to its jobs and lifestyle. The UCF corridor and East Orlando remain hot for investors and first-time buyers looking for solid rental potential.

What’s Driving These Trends

Several factors are shaping our current market — and understanding them helps both buyers and sellers make smarter moves.

Inventory Is Growing.
After years of shortages, more homes are hitting the market. This gives buyers more options and forces sellers to stand out with condition and presentation.
Interest Rates Are Stabilizing.
While still higher than the pandemic lows, rates appear to be leveling off. When they dip, we see quick bursts of activity. Most experts expect moderate rates through 2025.
Insurance and Taxes Are Adding Pressure.
Rising premiums are affecting affordability. Buyers are factoring these costs into their budgets more carefully, which can influence offer prices.
Job Growth and In-Migration Remain Strong.
Central Florida continues to attract new residents thanks to its weather, lifestyle, and job opportunities. Our tourism sector is strong, but growth in tech, healthcare, and logistics is diversifying the local economy.
Lifestyle Still Rules.
Buyers want communities that offer more than a house — they’re looking for experiences. Proximity to attractions like Disney World, Universal Orlando, and the Winter Garden Village adds appeal, as does access to lakes, trails, and parks.

My Take: Where the Market Is Headed

After nearly four decades in this business, I’ve learned to tune out the noise and focus on fundamentals. Here’s what I see coming over the next 6–12 months:

Prices will mostly stabilize, with modest gains (2–4%) in well-located neighborhoods and slight declines in areas with too much inventory.
Buyers will have more leverage — not a full buyer’s market, but closer to a fair fight.
Sellers need to be strategic. The homes that sell quickly are those that shine in photos, show well, and are priced competitively.
Luxury will stay strong but selective. Waterfront and golf-course properties will hold value better than overbuilt high-end subdivisions.
Clermont and Horizon West will remain growth corridors thanks to affordability and new development.
Ocoee and Gotha will appeal to move-up buyers looking for value close to the action.
Orlando proper will continue to benefit from strong job demand and urban revitalization.

In short: Central Florida’s market isn’t booming — it’s balancing. And that’s a healthy thing.

The Heart of Central Florida: Why We Still Love It Here

Even with the ups and downs of the real estate cycle, one thing hasn’t changed — people love living here.

On any given weekend, you’ll find families biking the West Orange Trail, enjoying brunch on Plant Street, taking the kids to Lakefront Park in Clermont, or catching fireworks over Magic Kingdom. Central Florida offers a lifestyle that’s hard to match anywhere else in the state — or the country.

For me personally, it’s more than just a market; it’s home. I’ve watched this region grow, adapt, and reinvent itself again and again. And I have no doubt it will continue to thrive.

Final Thoughts

If I had to sum it up, I’d say this: Central Florida real estate is returning to normal — and that’s a good thing.

We’re moving past the frenzy into a market that rewards experience, strategy, and realistic expectations. Whether you’re buying your first home or preparing to sell a longtime residence, success comes from understanding the dynamics and planning accordingly.

If you’d like to talk about what’s happening in your specific neighborhood — or just want an honest assessment of your home’s current value — I’d love to help.